Links: Demography, arrests, books as art, are marriage and porn substitutes?

* The Shit Test Encyclopedia; note as always that linking does not imply endorsement and that often the most interesting pieces are ones in which I do not find plausible many claims. Adam Phillips’s book Becoming Freud falls into this category, though it is the only book by or about Freud that I’ve found palatable.

* “Demography Is Rewriting Our Economic Destiny,” an underappreciated and significant issue; this can be read profitably in tandem with Bryan Caplan’s Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids: Why Being a Great Parent is Less Work and More Fun Than You Think.

* “Decades-long Arrest Wave Vexes Employers: Companies Struggle to Navigate Patchwork of Rules That Either Encourage or Deter Hiring Americans With Criminal Records;” if a third of Americans have arrest records something is seriously wrong with our society.

* “The Innovative Art of the Book-Preserving Underground: How do illustrations for new editions of Fahrenheit 451 or Breakfast at Tiffany’s stay fresh? Artists for The Folio Society remain true to the text.” I’ve bought Folio Society books.

* “Americans aren’t getting married, and researchers think porn is part of the problem,” which must be read skeptically.

* “The Henry Ford of Books,” about James Patterson, who is not good at sentences but perhaps he knows as much: “he is philosophical about his critics, in particular critics of his craft. Patterson decided long ago that he’d rather be a successful popular novelist than a mediocre literary one.” I have often been told that I should be writing nonfiction, and perhaps my own smaller circle of critics are correct. I’ve started a couple of Patterson books without finishing them.

* “How to be an expert in a changing world,” which, like many Graham essays, is about more than it appears to be about; this for instance applies to artists: “Good new ideas come from earnest, energetic, independent-minded people.”

* “The Birdcage: How Hollywood’s toxic (and worsening) addiction to franchises changed movies forever in 2014.” Here is me on Birdman and note too that the author is nostalgic for a time when movies were central to the culture, which hasn’t been true for at least a decade.

Loneliness and revealed preferences

Philip Greenspun starts a post:

Nearly everyone in the U.S. has Internet access. Many online dating services are inexpensive or free. Many people are single and say that they would prefer to be partnered and/or married.

From the above facts I think it is reasonable to infer that online dating services are not very effective (see my 2011 posting on the subject).

I left a comment, however:

1. The term “revealed preferences” was invented for moments like this.

2. Most people would probably prefer to be partnered and/or married with a person of sufficiently high status, however the first party defines “status.” But many if not most of us have contradictory desires or preferences or dreams.

3. People who can make reasonable compromises do not appear to spend much time alone, especially because they tend to find other people who can make reasonable compromises. We live in a society that valorizes rejecting the existing order and heroically going it alone. In some circumstances that is probably good and probably works, but in many others it’s probably bad and doesn’t work real well.

From points 1 and 2 I infer that the online dating industry may be working reasonably well but that a) search costs are high, b) people don’t want to admit who they can “get” given what they bring to the table, c) a lot of people want novelty more than security regardless of what they say to others, and d) a lot of people are full of shit.

Links: Drinking among faculty, demography, arrests, Michel Houellebecq and more!

* “Think binge drinking is bad among students? Try going to a faculty party sometime.” This hits a point that I often make: teenagers and adults often want to do the same things, for the same reasons.

* Famous Rolling Stone article about alleged campus rape is actually made up.

* “Demography Is Rewriting Our Economic Destiny,” an underappreciated and significant issue; this can be read profitably in tandem with Bryan Caplan’s Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids: Why Being a Great Parent is Less Work and More Fun Than You Think.

* Welcome to paradise, on legalized prostitution in Germany.

* “Decades-long Arrest Wave Vexes Employers: Companies Struggle to Navigate Patchwork of Rules That Either Encourage or Deter Hiring Americans With Criminal Records;” if a third of Americans have arrest records something is seriously wrong with our society.

* “The Department of Labor’s “American Apprenticeship Initiative” (AAI) Shows Some Forward Thinking by the Feds” is the rare Grant Writing Confidential post likely to interest Story’s Story readers too.

* The new Michel Houellebecq novel, which is of course self-recommending.

* Purity of Essence: One Question for Nell Zink, author of The Wallcreeper, which I ordered based on the interview:

Whatever I was writing at the time, I knew there was no market for it and never would be, because there’s never a market for true art, so my main concern was always to have a job that didn’t require me to write or think. So after I got out of college I worked construction, mostly. I waitressed some in winter. I was a very excitable waitress, but management valued me for my strange talent of taking drink specials seriously. They would order us to sell fuzzy navels at lunchtime, and I would obediently sell twenty fuzzy navels while the other waitstaff ignored them. My life changed forever in 1989, when a friend of my mother’s shanghaied me into taking the U.S. Office of Personnel Management’s test of clerical aptitude. Apparently 98.9 percent was an unusual score. As I recall, it was a test of visual acuity and short-term memory involving long sequences of numbers. I started getting these blind, cold-call job offers in the mail from places like the Defense Logistics Agency. Working full-time in construction was really wearing me out.

Links: Cops and murder, the need for justic, computers, William G. Tapply, and more!

* “The smart against the dumb: The new Cold War;” usually I avoid posting political stuff but will make an exception given the entertainment and insight of this piece.

* “Why It’s Impossible to Indict a Cop,” which is well paired with Rise of the Warrior Cop: The Militarization of America’s Police Forces

* Someone found this blog by searching for ‘”jake seliger” “global warming.”‘ I have no idea why.

* “A letter to … the girl who accused me of rape when I was 15.”

* “What should a Bayesian infer from the Antikythera Mechanism?“, which is highly recommended though you may not recognize some words in the title.

* “Only Yesterday” by William G. Tapply, which describes his use of notebooks; I took his novel writing seminars at Clark University.

* A weapon for readers; regular readers surely know that is how I read.

Tuft & Needle is doing good things for mattresses:

A friend wrote me to say, “I actually got s bed from tuft and needle (the 10 inch one) on your blog recc and it’s great!”

Admittedly the link wasn’t in the email, but the fact that she likes the bed says good things about the company and the for possibility that they might disrupt the very nasty mattress industry.

Links: Dwellings, drugs, don’t be a writer, Thiel, code, and more!

* “The best cure for wage stagnation nobody in Washington is talking about;” the larger absence of this issue among most of the commentariat is bizarre to me.

* “Why Are So Few Blockbuster Drugs Invented Today?” Weirdly, the article doesn’t mention Alex Tabarrok’s Launching the Innovation Renaissance.

* Pulitzer prize-winner has no money; contemplate this when making your own life choices.

* Inside Peter Thiel’s mind, an interview between him and Ezra Klein.

* “ A Cautionary Tale of Learning to Code. My own,” or, why you should do things the easy way when possible.

* In “New Factor in Campus Sexual Assault Cases: Counsel for the Accused,” the New York Times describes how men accused of rape or rape-like offenses are getting lawyers. But the writer, Ariel Kaminer, doesn’t observe the obvious: serious crimes should be dealt with by cops and courts, not campus committees.

Links: Markets, sexuality, public transport, and failure

* “A Rare (Earth) Case of Wisdom,” or “markets work.” That the latter is still worth saying in 2014 is distressing.

* “The Boardroom and the Bedroom: How both dating and finance have been screwed by the Internet” is entertaining throughout but consider that both may raise the returns to people with long-term orientations as all the short-term oriented people flee the market. Plus those who tire of volatility will return to fundamentals. Who has written the Random Walk Down Wall Street of dating? I only invest in index funds.

* Falling short: seven writers reflect on failure.

* “Public Transit: All About Density.” Supporting dense development means supporting the environment.

* “Why Schools Can’t Teach Sex Ed in the Internet Age,” and, perhaps relatedly though on another site, “Everybody Sexts.”

* Markets matter in general and mating markets matter in particular.

* Canon G7-X review; I have an RX-100, bought used, and it is excellent.

Links: Polyamory is boring, Israel, relationships and books, startups, adjuncts and more

* “Polyamory Is Boring” (see especially the Know-Nothing thought experiment) and, relatedly, “Polyhacking.” The comments are great in both, especially about fiction’s relationship with monogamy.

* Jeffrey Goldberg: “Even Israel’s Best Friends Understand That It Is Disconnecting From Reality.” Following Israeli politics even from a distance is depressing.

* New York Times essays: “Have You Ever Had a Relationship End Because of a Book?” I haven’t, but I have had relationships end due to a total lack of books.

* “Fundraising Acceleration Is The New VC Investment Thesis;” for many years I’ve thought about writing a novel set in and around startups and it may now be number two or three on the docket. I think I may go very lascivious first.

* The Myth of Chinese Super Schools.

* Someone found this blog by searching for “sex japan drunk,” for reasons not obvious to me.

* Catherine Stukel delivers what shouldn’t be news: Is That Whining Adjunct Someone We Want Teaching Our Young?

* “A sexual harassment policy that nearly ruined my life;” expect to see more of these stories.

Links: Books, Is Marriage Worth Saving?, drinking, new Stephenson, standing desks, swagger, and more!

* Matt Yglesias thinks Amazon is doing the world a favor by crushing book publishers; see also my related post “Tyler Cowen on Paul Krugman on Amazon on the buzz.” The section “book publishers are terrible at marketing” is particularly interesting.

* “Is Marriage Worth Saving?” Given the subject of Asking Anna it should not be a surprise that I read with interest.

* “An interactive map of gender ratios among single people in cities;” virtually all cities have more unattached men than women in the 20 – 34 demographic, implying that many women are willing and happy to date older—sometimes substantially so.

* “Why College Kids Drink Like They’re Getting Extra Credit for It,” maybe.

* First details of Neal Stephenson’s next novel, Seveneves.

* “How Standing Desks Can Help Students Focus in the Classroom;” I’m all for it and since reading this I’ve been encouraging my students to stand when they write in class. I use a standing desk.

* “Prof. Alan Dershowitz: ‘Harvard’s policy was written by people who think sexual assault is so heinous a crime that even innocence is not a defense.‘”

* How to get swagger.

We are our own enemies: “Arts & Entertainments” edition

In “The Collective Conscience of Reality Television: In a format without a code of conduct, viewers drive the limits of the exploitation and privacy invasions allowed onscreen” Serena Elavia writes that “What viewers will or won’t watch matters immensely to networks; in fact, they seem function as the networks’ sole ‘conscience.'” She’s right, and it’s a point too infrequently made: most of the cultural “problems” that the commentariat identifies arise because the audience responds to whatever the “problem” might be, whether it’s improbably hot and photoshopped models or reality TV or football or soda.

This is important because words like “society” or “the media” are actually shorthands for “the aggregated preferences of many, perhaps millions, of individuals.” You can’t really blame “society” for much of anything; you can at best blame the many individuals who hold and perpetuate beliefs or practices or whatever. “Conscience” is distributed, and it’s arguably becoming more distributed in the Internet age, when the means of discussions are (literally) at everyone’s fingertips. This blog is a good example of that principle in action.

Elavia’s point is also similar to one made by Brian Moody, the producer in Christopher Beha’s novel Arts & Entertainments. Towards the end of the novel he and Eddie, the everyman nebbish protagonist, discuss the nature of TV and, beneath that, the nature of God, and Moody says:

The audience has only way of expressing its interest—by watching. They might watch because they love you. They might watch because they hate you. They might watch because they’re sick. Doesn’t matter. Is that good or bad? The question doesn’t make any sense. Good is whatever the audience watches [. . . .] The audience is all there is [. . . .] I care about the audience, and I won’t defy them.

That last line, about how Moody “won’t defy” the audience, is scary because it implies he’ll do anything. Kill a man? If the audience wants it—and some dark corners of the Internet imply there is a market for murder. Moody is unsettling because he’ll do anything to anyone around him if the audience wills it. Most of us would like to imagine our friends, and even strangers, will not under any circumstances murder, torture, or rape us. Moody implies that in the right circumstances he would, or he would allow it to happen, almost as a form of worship.

Right now we don’t live in Moody’s world: as Elavia observes, producers only stop when audiences protest. Which raises a question: What happens if audiences don’t protest? That sort of question underlies books like The Hunger Games. Over time it may become more salient. Fiction and history teach us that we don’t really know what our neighbors and friends and strangers will do in real crises. Many, however, will indulge or release the darkness within.