I am dying of squamous cell carcinoma, and the treatments that might save me are just out of reach

If you find this piece worthwhile, consider the Go Fund Me that’s funding ongoing cancer care.

Alex Tabarrok writes about how “when the FDA fails to approve a good drug, people die but the bodies are buried in an invisible graveyard.” I’d like to make that graveyard a little bit more visible because I’m going to be buried in it, in a few weeks or months. A squamous cell carcinoma tumor appeared on my tongue last September; the surgery for it occurred in October, followed by radiation in December – January, but the tumor reappeared at the base of my tongue in April. A massive surgery on May 25 appeared to produce “clean margins” (that is, no tumor cells remained where the surgeon operated), albeit at huge cost: I have no tongue any more, just a “flap” of muscle where it used to be, and no ability to swallow solid foods ever again. Monday I’m starting chemotherapy, but that’s almost certainly going to fail, because a CT scan shows four to six new gross tumors, four in my neck and two, possibly, in my lungs.

So what might help me? MRNA tumor vaccines. Head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) are notoriously treatment resistant, and mRNA vaccines have shown huge promise. Why aren’t they happening faster? Because the FDA is slow. There are some trials underway (here is one from Moderna; here is another), and, although I’m trying to enroll, I may be too late, since my cancer moves so aggressively. The FDA was loathe to approve initial mRNA human trials, even when those trials would have been full of people like me: those who are facing death sentences anyway.

Here is one story, from “Why the FDA Has an Incentive to Delay the Introduction of New Drugs:”

In the early 1980s, when I headed the team at the FDA that was reviewing the NDA for recombinant human insulin, . . . we were ready to recommend approval a mere four months after the application was submitted (at a time when the average time for NDA review was more than two and a half years). With quintessential bureaucratic reasoning, my supervisor refused to sign off on the approval—even though he agreed that the data provided compelling evidence of the drug’s safety and effectiveness. “If anything goes wrong,” he argued, “think how bad it will look that we approved the drug so quickly.” (41)

The problem is that delaying mRNA cancer vaccines kills people like me.

We need to have a much stronger “right to try” presumption: “When Dying Patients Want Unproven Drugs,” we should let those patients try. I have weeks to months left; let’s try whatever there is to try, and advance medicine along the way. The “right to try” is part of fundamental freedom—and this is particularly true for palliative-stage patients without a route to a cure anyway. They are risking essentially nothing.

When I am dead and buried at least those who I love and who love me will know the FDA protected me and millions of others like me from ourselves. Thanks, FDA. But the dead do not vote and do not agitate for change, so the system is likely to grind on.

In computer science there is a convention in which one’s first program prints “Hello, world.” Now it is my turn to write “Goodbye, world.” I’m crying as I write this and am sorry to have to go so soon. I have to give back the gift, though with great sadness.

Here is more about the FDA being slow and bureaucratic.

EDIT: Thank you for all the comments and emails. Many of you have asked what you can do to help, and one possible answer is to consider the Go Fund Me that’s funding ongoing care. Apart from that, I’m being treated at the Mayo Clinic Phoenix, and they have a system set up for donations to support clinical trials, so maybe that is another answer; I hope that, in the future, others won’t have to go through what I’m going through.

You may like some of the other essays I’ve written, like “I know what happens to me after I die, but what about those left behind?“, or that Bess has written, like “How much suffering is too much?”

Jake Seliger, possible figurehead for the invisible graveyard of men and women killed by the FDA's slowness
The author on July 22, 2023, when he is, or was, still alive.

Links: Some cancer things, but also some other things

* “Slow, Costly Clinical Trials Drag Down Biomedical Breakthroughs.” This is particularly relevant to me right now because the breakthroughs I need to survive are on the horizon but not here yet.

* On the absurd cancer drug shortage, and the fragile supply chains enabling it.

* How Woke Led to Cultural Decadence. Maybe. But trends bring counter-trends too, right?

* Heat pumps are important.

* What It Will Take to Deter China in the Taiwan Strait.

* Is a Revolution in Cancer Treatment Within Reach? First 80% of the article is great, and the last 20% is terrible.

* “Castration, gang-rape, forced nudity: How Russia’s soldiers terrorise Ukraine with sexual violence.” The level of ignorance and folly that comes from the “Why are we support Ukraine?” crowd is borderline unbelievable, but then one remembers that they’re suffering from partisanship brain.

* Interview with China specialist Dan Wang.

* The Princess Bride at 50. The book is more than a little curious, and an artifact of its time.

* Suddenly, it looks like we’re in a golden age for medicine.

* The year I tried to teach myself math.

* “From the Hoover Dam to the Second Avenue subway, America builds slower.” And that is bad. Speed is good.

Global warming is here and it’s everyone’s fault

Maybe you’ve seen: “The 15 hottest days, in the world’s hottest month.”

It’s not like we weren’t warned: Nasa scientist James Hansen testified to Congress in 1988 about what was coming. We ignored it. By now, it’s everyone’s fault.

It’s the fault of:

* People who have spent decades voting against nuclear power.

* People who support NEPA. People who have never heard of NEPA.

* NIMBYs who work and vote to keep the vast majority of domiciles car-dependent.

* NIMBYs who make sure we can’t build more housing in dense, green cities like NYC (where I used to live, but moved, due to affordability issues).

* People who vote against bike lanes.

* People who could have picked the smaller vehicles and didn’t.

* People who could have picked up the bikes and didn’t.

* People who could have installed solar and didn’t.

* People who vote against mass transit (“It will never be practical”).

* Me. I only have so much effort to push into resisting the efforts of hundreds of millions if not billions of other people who are enacting the system. I try to resist but it’s hard for one person.

* People who realize that they’d like to live differently but are pushed into that single exurban direction by the legal and regulatory structure of American and, often, Canadian life.

Even the people who’d like to live greener—without a car, without relentless parking lots blighting the landscape, without having to live in single-unit housing—mostly can’t, in the United States. Or if we can, we’re merely moving the next marginal candidate who’d like to live densely into the exurbs of Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Miami, and so on. Those are the places where it’s legal to build housing, so that’s where most people are going. I’ve moved from New York to Phoenix because I can afford the latter and can (barely) afford the former. Most of Phoenix is impossible without a car, and dangerous on a bike. It’s tragic, and I’d love to see change, but the system is forcing me in a particular direction and it’s incredibly expensive to try resisting it.

It’s the fault of no one, and everyone. There are some green shoots of change happening, albeit slowly, but we needed to get serious about nuclear power and the removal of non-safety zoning restrictions decades ago. We didn’t, and now the price is showing up. We need to get serious today, but we’re not.

Because fault is diffused, most of us, me included, feel there’s nothing substantial we can do—so we do nothing. Years pass. The problems worsen, though we can justify to ourselves that the problems are just headlines. Insurance becomes hard to get. The deniers set up their own alternative universes, where information only confirms and never disconfirms their worldviews. The bullshit asymmetry principle plays out: “The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.”

“What if scientists have over-predicted the consequences of global warming?” people ask. The flipside is never considered: “What if they’re underpredicting the consequences?”

The system goes on. Maybe solar, wind, and geothermal get cheap fast enough to partially save us. Maybe direct air capture (DAC) of carbon dioxide proceeds fast enough.

But maybe it doesn’t. And then the crisis will be all of our faults. And no one’s.

Links: Debt of many kinds, if you are properly considering many of these stories

* “US public debt is projected to reach 181% of American economic activity in 30 years.” As with climate change, no one, or at least not the median voter, seems to care about this, which I find strange.

* California strip malls were upzoned last Saturday. A small step in the right direction.

* 2023 geothermal update. Generally good news.

* Unfuckable Hate Nerds: Yes, young men are losers. They deserve sympathy, not contempt.” A topic not much considered in this way.

* Geeks, mops and sociopaths: the death of subcultures.

* “Tony Soprano and the Jungian Death Mother.”

* “The Hypocrisy of Mandatory Diversity Statements: Demanding that everyone embrace the same values will inevitably narrow the pool of applicants who work and get hired in higher education.”

* “The mystery of microbes that live inside tumours.”

* “Earth hit an unofficial record high temperature this week – and stayed there.” Have you subscribed to ClimeWorks yet, or another carbon-removal company like Project Vesta? If not, maybe it’s time. Maybe it’s past time.

* Dan Ariely is bad, it seems.

* How much transparency in government is good? Maybe less than is commonly assumed, right now.

* How to blow up a timeline.

* “Americans’ Confidence in Higher Education Down Sharply.” I saw people on Twitter observing that making higher-ed an avowedly partisan project may then generate typical partisan splits about its value.

A life-changing encounter with a man named Dan

This essay is by my brother, Sam.

In 2009, I had a life-changing encounter with a man named Dan; he was the top salesman at our company and left an indelible mark on my career. Dan was an impressive figure, standing at six feet four with a heroic build, fierce red hair, and striking green eyes. He possessed an air of confidence, always dressed impeccably, never seen with a loosened tie, even during late nights working on proposals. His crisp, white shirt occasionally had its sleeves rolled up, but he always exuded professionalism and ownership. People naturally gravitated towards him, stepping aside to listen to his words. Dan treated everyone with a warm smile and friendliness, be it the company president or the person serving us lunch at Subway. His positive attitude was unparalleled. Whenever asked how he was doing, his unwavering response was, “I have never been better”—and he genuinely meant it.

Then, one day, Dan received devastating news about one of his children, who passed away. He took some time off from work, but, upon his return, he walked into the building with his laptop in hand, his tie tightly knotted, and a radiant smile on his face. As we were close colleagues, I felt concerned and decided to visit his office that morning, closing the door behind me.

“How are you really doing?” I asked sincerely. “Is there anything I can do for you? I mean it, anything, just ask.”

With a grin, Dan replied, “You know, I’ve never been better,” tossing his empty Starbucks cup into a trash can across the room. I stood there in silence, processing his words.

“How?” I finally managed to ask. “How can you maintain such a positive outlook? How can you genuinely claim that you’ve never been better?”

Dan leaned in and spoke softly, capturing my full attention. “Listen carefully,” he began. “You don’t truly know anything about me or my life. You only think you do. Here’s something you must remember, and I won’t mention it again. Your attitude sucks. Frankly, I’m surprised they tolerate it here. Your attitude defines everything. It shapes your life. You think things are bad? Let me tell you, buddy, they could be a lot worse. A lot worse. You’re standing there, upset because a meeting didn’t go your way, dressed in your shirt and cheap tie. Well, go out and start digging sewers and tell me how much that meeting mattered today. And maybe, after digging sewers, you’ll get laid off and find yourself living in one, eating from a dumpster. You don’t know anything. So, listen up. When someone asks how you’re doing, there’s only one answer: ‘I’ve never been better.’ And you live your life as if it’s true because here’s the stone-cold truth — no matter how bad you think things are right now, they can always be worse. So, wake up and change your attitude. Right fucking now.”

With that, he leaned back in his chair, his smile returning as if nothing had happened. I stood there in stunned silence, my shirt drenched in sweat.

“I need more coffee,” Dan happily announced. “Care to join me? It’s on me. Sales always buys the damn coffee!”

We went to Starbucks in his new Mercedes, and while everything seemed unchanged for him, everything had changed for me. I realized I couldn’t fulfill Dan’s request within that job: so I mustered the courage to quit, eventually finding a position at another company. It was a terrifying move, as I had spent my entire professional career at the previous company.

As I was walking into the new office, the receptionist greeted me with a smile and asked how I was doing.

“I’ve never been better,” I replied, sporting a wide grin.

“Well, that’s a fantastic attitude,” she beamed. “You’ll fit right in here if you can maintain that!”

And so it went. I became the most cheerful and upbeat person in the company. Though I became the subject of jokes, I also became a beacon of hope for those feeling downtrodden. Unbeknownst to me, I’d joined a company on the verge of collapse, but, as things worsened, my attitude gained more attention. I rapidly climbed the ranks, despite lacking expertise in the company’s technology. Layoffs hit, one after another, but I survived each round despite being the most junior member. Perplexed, I asked my boss how this was possible.

“Well,” he explained, “During meetings to discuss layoffs, your name consistently comes up. You’re inexperienced and new to the company, making you the logical choice. However, each time, everyone decides you should stay. Your attitude is so positive that everyone wants you here. The president even said he’d prefer one average employee with a great attitude over five brilliant but gloomy experts. Attitude sells. So, you don’t have to worry. You’ll still be here long after I’m gone, until they turn off the lights, if you want to be.”

And so it unfolded. As things deteriorated, my promotions accelerated. Within 18 months, I became the senior member of the sales team. I became the face of the company’s improbable turnaround. And when things reached their breaking point (the turnaround effort was not enough), a friend offered me a job, and that very day, I walked out.

From my experience with Dan and the job after Dan, I developed a list of three priorities necessary for success in the workplace. Having spent considerable time in the business world, let me share these priorities:

  • Firstly, your boss. Your number one priority is to make your boss look good. This is not a joke.
  • Secondly, your company. Your top priority is to increase revenue. Following closely is improving profitability. These two priorities should guide your thoughts and actions.
  • Finally, yourself. Your primary priority is to maintain an unwaveringly positive attitude, self-confidence, and the appearance of success.

The third item is crucial for your career and life. No amount of education or expertise surpasses its significance in most circumstances. An employee with average skills and a positive attitude holds greater value than five brilliant but unpleasant individuals. As pilots say, “your attitude determines your altitude.” Maintaining a positive attitude at all costs ensures your success, as surely as day follows night. Failure is not an option.

Since then, I’ve strived to adhere to these priorities. Where I succeeded, they brought me great achievements. Where I faltered, they resulted in failure and misery. Attitude stands as the foremost determinant of success in life. You must consistently exhibit a positive attitude, no matter the circumstances. Because it’s true—no matter how dire things may seem, they can always be worse. Your attitude will dictate how you navigate through it all.

If I could impart one thing to anyone, regardless of their stage in life, it would be to always display a positive attitude. It holds immeasurable power in the universe.

Links: The case for seriousness, growth, technology, and freedom

* Why AI will save the world. Contrary much of the media narrative right now. Which doesn’t mean it’s right.

* “Why the U.S. should fight Cold War 2.” The “lack of good alternative” is the principle reason.

* The Eros of Shirley Hazzard.

* How Tokyo Became an Anti-Car Paradise. American cities should aspire to do the same!

* Degrowth and the Monkey’s Paw. Growth is good. It’s how we solve problems.

* “The First Year of AI College Ends in Ruin: There’s an arms race on campus, and professors are losing.” I don’t think anyone yet knows what the new normal will look like. More in-class and non-Internet writing, maybe. Last semester, the ChatGPT-generated essays stood out.

* Don’t be dissuaded by the title: “The Takeover: Self-righteous professors have spawned self-righteous students and unleashed them into the public square.” The essay itself is much better and more historical than you may imagine, particularly in its first half.

* Understanding the tech right.

* “The Age 30 Crisis and Seasons of a Man’s Life.” I’m not exactly feeling this but am feeling a version of it, so it resonates especially with me right now.

* “Sex and agency,” an argument for monogamy and basic life seriousness.

Links: The microchip war, enlightened centrism, Joseph Wambaugh, and more!

* Towards an enlightened centrism. This is pretty close to what I aspire to hit. Epistemology matters, and knowledge matters, and picking a side (besides accuracy) is undesirable. These basic notions seem not to be widely shared, however.

* “The Double Life of John le Carré.”

* Why women rebel against pro-life.

* Joseph Wambaugh, the Man Who Invented the Modern Cop Novel. I wonder who today might be inventing the modern cop Substack, or maybe Substack novel.

* The great electrician shortage.

* Why Do Women Online Blow Relationship Issues Out Of Proportion?

* Are Iranians tired of being ruled by insane old men?

* “On the unexpected joys of Denglisch, Berlinglish & global Englisch.”

* Reading on screens appears worse for comprehension than reading on paper, which matches my anecdotal experiences and impressions.

* Make Parking Impossible. Note: “We drive them incessantly, and hardly ever in the mountain roads of BMW commercials, but rather in the chockablock midday traffic of endless overpasses and interchanges that have made our landscapes into a wasteland of nonporous asphalt. Our addiction to quick and free parking has turned our cities into vast expanses of garages and tarmac that are unsightly and dangerous to walk across.” We should aspire to do better, and to be more imaginative.

* “Why I’m not worried about AI causing mass unemployment.” Marc Andreessen has been saying in podcasts that the healthcare, education, and government sectors are so highly regulated that AI won’t be able to improve productivity in them.

* “Derek Parfit: the perfectionist at All Souls.” I wish I found reading Parfit’s books as interesting as I find reading about Parfit.

* “Nudity and Nonconsensual Viewing: The question of whether an artwork is offensive is now determined by the least generous interpretation of the most sensitive viewer.” We’ve made the most neurotic, least reasonable people, and loudest people the arbiters of art and much else. Maybe that’s a mistake: “[D]espite most people’s tolerant self-image, moral censorship of the visual arts remains a problem.”

* “Amazon’s quiet open source revolution.” That’s good!

* The curious side effects of medical transparency.

* “China Could Soon Be the Dominant Military Power in Asia.” And we seem to be sleepwalking into this.

* China’s New Strategy for Waging the Microchip Tech War. Related to the one immediately above.

Links: Writing before money, education and AI, the long game, and more!

* “Out to lunch,” a report on what being a write was like before anyone had any money: “Big money entered the British book world some years later, an American intrusion that upended the business – indeed turned it from the break-even passion of tweedy, literature-loving, mostly older men [. . .] into an enterprise dominated by accountants. Until then book writing was, with a few exceptions, small-scale and poorly paid. Publishing was not the corporate scheme Americans eventually made it, but still the cottage industry it had always been.” Maybe book publishing is going back to that. Maybe book publishing is already back to a version of that.

* “The future of education in a world of AI.”

* Are colleges finally re-discovering the virtues of free speech?

* “The Left, TikTok, and the World’s Biggest Police State.” I don’t think I’ve seen any good arguments, anywhere, for letting TikTok continue to operate in the U.S. under its current model. In addition, TikTok has major network effects but its core mechanics can be trivially copied (and already seem to have been, in the form of YouTube Shorts, Instagram’s Reels, and so forth).

* “US could soon approve MDMA therapy — opening an era of psychedelic medicine.” Better late than never. Banning MDMA by making it a Schedule I drug was a mistake when it happened and continues to be a mistake, and one that makes millions of people pay the price of our collective folly.

* “I personally named my house and business after Silmarillion references – I would have named my car after one, but I learned my friend had named her car after it first, and that Steven Colbert had also named his car after it, and it would be weird to have all these cars named ‘Vingilótë’ driving around. At this point I backed off.” Would it be weird, or too weird? From “Contra Kriss On Nerds And Hipsters.”

* Why aren’t we taking every Chinese refugee we can? Questions that should be more often asked.

* CATL claims mass production breakthrough of cells with 500 Wh/kg. I’d put a “maybe” on this one, but CATL is a real company, not a random research lab or a tiny company that’s big on press releases. If this turns out to be true, and the price reasonable, and there aren’t other gotchas, it’s a hugely important breakthrough.

* Rice cookers are great, underrated kitchen gadgets. I use mine all the time.

* “The Forgotten Drug Trips of the Nineteenth Century: Long before the hippies, a group of thinkers used substances like cocaine, hashish, and nitrous oxide to uncover the secrets of the mind.” The human fondness for intoxicating substances seems nearly infinite. I’ve been reading the book and it is perhaps too detailed, especially regarding Freud (material about him may simply be available), but it’s also good, interesting, and forgotten.

* Data > anecdote

Links: What a good life means, the excess of parking, the real world, and more!

* “Preparing to die has a lot to do with having had a good life.” And other existential thoughts occasioned by aging and witnessing people become no longer people.

* “Becky is depressed.” A speculative essay on life purpose and meaning. Maybe it’s too often addressing strawmen, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

* The U.S. has way too much parking, and some municipalities are finally doing something about it. Parking lots are antithetical to living the good life, and hasten death. I was listening to an interview with Kelly Starrett, the guy who wrote Become a Supple Leopard, and he emphasize the importance of walking.

* You’d be happier living closer to your friends. Why don’t you? Parochial U.S. zoning. Excess parking requirements. We should allow missing middle housing. Let freedom reign!

* Building A New American Arsenal.

* The Democratic Senator Who Says Liberals Have Lost Their Way on Housing.

* “The Unbearable Costs of Becoming a Writer: After years of hard work and low pay, the risks I took to work in publishing are finally paying off. But now, I wonder about the price my family paid, and whether it was too steep.” See also me in “The death of literary culture.” Plus, the tools for writing and disseminating writing are now so cheap that making money as a writer is somewhere between “harder than ever” and at least “different from before.” A few writers make it work via Substack, for example, but most don’t. The pre-2009 paths to being a “writer” are mostly closed, or dead, and many of the more important “writers” today are people who do other things but also write.

* Before politics, there is the world.

* The golden age of aerospace.

* How to be an intellectual.

* The ‘real’ reasons the English department died.

* “Less Cars, More Money: My Visit to the City of the Future.”

* “Lessons from the 19th Century:” “Americans were a people with an extraordinary sense of agency. This is one of the central reasons they transformed the material, cultural, institutional, and political framework of not only the North American continent, but the entire world. That people is gone.” The word “were” is key in the first sentence, and it sets up the last sentence. Can we recover a sense of agency and action, or are we going to be permanently stuck mired in complacency? Maybe we need a new frontier, consisting of O’Neill Habitats, or similar, to re-open the frontier.

* Are teachers actually natural conservatives?

Links: The evolution of work, the effectiveness of the drug war, and more!

* “What hunter-gatherers demonstrate about work and satisfaction.”

* “Global Supply of Cocaine Hits Record Level, U.N. Says: Coca cultivation rose 35% from 2020 to 2021, new report says.” At what point does one declare defeat, legalize, and move on? Like the war in Afghanistan, when do we admit stalemate?

* Looks like RSV vaccines will be available by next winter, which is great!

* Orwell, Camus, and the truth. “Both of these writers took the view that truthfulness was more important than ideological allegiance and metaphysics, that the facts should be derived from the real world, rather than the world of ideas. They were similar stylistically too: both wrote candidly, clearly and prolifically.”

* “Education Commentary is Dominated by Optimism Bias.” The title makes it sound more sedate than it is.

* “Living the writing life means living with failure.” Though this underestimates the extent to which the writing world has changed in the last two decades.

* “The Great Feminization of the American University.”

* On Sebastian Berry; a promising-sounding writer if you’d like more Irish history.

* “Surprise Computer Science Proof Stuns Mathematicians: For decades, mathematicians have been inching forward on a problem about which sets contain evenly spaced patterns of three numbers. Last month, two computer scientists blew past all of those results.”

* The subway is for transportation: it seems like this ought to be obvious, but here we are. Ezra Klein dubbed the tendency not to focus “everything-bagel liberalism.”

* “Progressives need to embrace progress.” Also seems obvious, but I’ve not seen it argued this way before.

* The Uncomfortable Truth About Why Buying Furniture Is So Miserable.

* Nuclear power’s economic stack.

* “America is fighting the wrong university wars.” The bigger problem, in this writer’s view, is the non-elite, non-exclusionary public schools that act as “student warehouses,” and that don’t accomplish much.

* Argument that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan.

* On Brandon Sanderson, who appears to be a bad writer at the sentence level but is popular nonetheless.

* How to Build a Kitchen (and Why).

* On Henry Green, a most unusual writer.